In the previous analysis, we measured housing demand and supply using net migration and building permits for MSA cities. This time, we will conduct a more granular analysis to observe significant differences between demand and supply.
The following chart is from the previous analysis and shows the supply and demand trends. The blue line represents the trend for the entire dataset. The further away from the blue line, the greater the difference between demand and supply. In this analysis, we will examine the counties of the top three MSAs with the highest "More Supply" and "More Demand" deviations, focusing on Net Migration and Building Permits.
Below is information on the top 3 "More Demand" MSAs, including a list of counties with their net migration per building permits and a corresponding map.
Table 1. Top More Demand MSAs
Rank | MSA name | Status |
1 | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | More demand |
2 | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | More demand |
3 | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | More demand |
Table 2. More Demands Counties' net migration / building permits of the MSAs above
County Name | MSA | Net Migration / Building Permits |
New York (Manhattan) | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 11418.000 |
San Francisco | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | 7883.500 |
Bronx | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 1983.094 |
Kings (Brooklyn) | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 1810.058 |
Queens | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 1299.647 |
Westchester | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 702.824 |
Putnam | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 637.750 |
Cook | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 474.429 |
San Mateo | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | 465.294 |
Alameda | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | 413.641 |
Lake | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 392.054 |
DuPage | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 389.922 |
Marin | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | 384.356 |
Nassau | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 384.016 |
Rockland | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 375.147 |
Union | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 307.021 |
Passaic | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 292.586 |
Essex | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 284.059 |
Middlesex | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 275.135 |
Richmond | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 273.748 |
Somerset | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 245.880 |
Newton | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 243.333 |
DeKalb | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 206.200 |
Kenosha | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 193.704 |
Contra Costa | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | 189.764 |
Sussex | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 180.923 |
Hudson | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 175.359 |
Suffolk | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 171.409 |
Grundy | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 140.842 |
Hunterdon | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 129.664 |
Kane | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 121.158 |
Pike | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 116.704 |
Morris | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 115.093 |
Will | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 113.007 |
Jasper | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 90.154 |
Bergen | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 89.720 |
Porter | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 82.685 |
Lake | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 72.907 |
Monmouth | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 62.935 |
Kendall | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 62.444 |
McHenry | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 53.192 |
Ocean | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 34.303 |
Counties in New York City, excluding Staten Island, dominate the top ranks. Manhattan and San Francisco stand out as outliers with extremely high net migration per building permit ratios, likely due to the limited land available for new construction, leading to higher rents.
Next, we will look at the top 3 "More Supply" MSAs, including a list of counties with their net migration per building permits and a corresponding map.
Table 3. Top 3 More Supply MSAs
Rank | MSA name | Status |
1 | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | More supply |
2 | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | More supply |
3 | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | More supply |
Table 4. More Supply Counties' net migration / building permits of the MSAs above
County Name | MSA | Net migration / Building Permit |
Waller | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 78.477 |
Travis | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | 76.976 |
Caldwell | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | 45.292 |
Harris | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 41.891 |
Galveston | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 38.540 |
Williamson | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | 37.556 |
Maricopa | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 37.045 |
Liberty | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 34.291 |
Brazoria | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 30.534 |
Pinal | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 24.666 |
Bastrop | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | 24.459 |
Chambers | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 21.832 |
Hays | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | 20.694 |
Fort Bend | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 19.710 |
Austin | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 14.312 |
Montgomery | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 13.381 |
Counties in Houston and Austin show high numbers for net migration per building permit, indicating that despite being major cities, they still have room for new construction compared to the national trend, leading to a more balanced supply-demand ratio.
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