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Where are U.S. Housing Markets Really Headed?



High prices don't always mean strong fundamentals.

 

So at Market Stadium, we asked:What if you combined Price Growth, Sales Volume, and Financial Risk—to get a clearer picture of true market momentum?


 

The 3-Point Pulse Check:

We analyzed:

  • Sales Price Growth = Value signal

  • Sold Units Growth = Demand strength

  • Delinquency Growth = Financial risk


Each city is placed in a quadrant to show its market condition + risk profile.



Top 10 Markets

  • Ranking is based on equal-weighted percentile scores of price growth (higher is better), supply decline (larger drop is better), and delinquency growth (lower is better).


Key Takeaways

  1. Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Virginia Beach lead the pack — With minimal delinquency growth (0% or negative) and meaningful supply drops, these cities score well across all three metrics, offering strong fundamentals and low risk. They’re ideal for stable, long-term plays.

  2.  Memphis and OKC are growth standouts with some risk — Exceptional price appreciation and major supply pullbacks push these markets near the top, but elevated delinquency risk suggests a need for cautious underwriting.

  3. Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Cincinnati offer a strong mix — These markets show above-average price growth and tightening supply, with moderate delinquency, making them well-suited for balanced investment strategies.


Core Market Insights: Summary by Quadrant

  1. Q1: Momentum Leaders

    • Charlotte, NC and Indianapolis, IN combine strong price appreciation with high transaction volume and low delinquency rates.

    • Top picks for near-term expansion and stable growth.

  2. Q2: Recovery Watchlist

    • Riverside, CA shows high volume activity but price weakness.

    • Attractive entry point if you anticipate pricing recovery

  3. Q3: Defensive Plays

    • San Diego, CA and Los Angeles, CA are showing pullbacks in both price and volume.

    • Low delinquency supports a safe hold or long-term value buy strategy.

  4. Q4: Cautious Optimism

    • Cincinnati, OH and St. Louis, MO reflect rising prices despite slowing sales.

    •  Tread carefully — validate if growth is speculative or backed by demand.



Food for Thought:

Growth alone isn’t enough.

Markets that shine on the surface can hide underlying risk. And some of the quietest metros—like Cleveland or Indy—may be holding the strongest cards.



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Dennis Lee

CEO at Market Stadium

Prev. Lionstone Investments Research Team



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